Barring the scenario of Imran Khan's supporters forming the next government.

Pakistan's second and third political factions agreed to cooperate after the elections, in which supporters of jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan came first.

The Muslim League Party led by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and the Pakistan People's Party led by Asif Zardari issued a statement saying they intend to work together to form the next government and achieve political stability in the country.

On their part, supporters of detained former Prime Minister Imran Khan and the leader of the Tehreek-e-Insaf party declared that they were the largest faction in parliament and had the right to form the new government.

PTI was banned from participating in recent elections because of its attractive symbol, so most of the party's followers contested the elections as independent candidates.

Shoaib Shaheen, one of the Tehreek-e-Insaf party candidates, was among his supporters in Islamabad during a protest against the election results, and an objection was lodged in the court/ Photo: Shahr Al-Ahmad - Islamabad
Shoaib Shaheen, one of the PTI candidates, among his supporters in Islamabad during a protest against the election results that toppled him (Al Jazeera)

election results

According to the semi-final results, independents, most of whom are believed to be from PTI, won 101 out of a total of 336 parliamentary seats.

Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz Party stood second by winning 75 seats and People's Party stood third by winning 54 seats. According to the results, the United National Movement Party has won a surprise victory on 17 seats and can play a role in any alliance.

As controversy over the election results continued, protests were seen in several Pakistani areas accusing officials of fraud and demanding a recount of votes. The most prominent protesters were Insaaf Andolan and Jamaat-e-Islami.

The political development comes amid nationwide protests over claims that vote counting and results were rigged after authorities shut down mobile phone networks on election day and delayed vote counting for more than two days. Was.

formation of government

According to observers, the election results were a surprise, as they were expecting the victory of Nawaz Sharif's party, which is widely believed to be supported by the military (which has supreme authority in the country), while Imran Khan was defeated. Has been detained and faces dozens of cases, and his party was barred from participating in the elections.

To form a government, a parliamentary block must be formed with a simple majority of 169 seats in the National Assembly.
Of the 366 seats in the National Assembly, 266 are determined by direct voting, of which 60 are reserved for women and 10 for minorities. Under the law, independents do not have the right to elect members for the women and minority quota.

(Asif Luqman Qazi, group director of external relations (Photo by Shahar)
Luqman suggested that Nawaz Sharif agree with Zardari in addition to smaller parties to form the next government (Al Jazeera)

expected scenario

To explore the most prominent scenarios expected to form the next Pakistani government, Al Jazeera Net met Asif Luqman Qazi, director of foreign affairs of the Pakistani Islamic Group, who believed that the elections were dependent on extreme polarization by the active parties, perhaps The most prominent of these was the Insaaf Party, most of whose supporters are young and familiar with social media.

When Lukman was asked about his opinion about tampering with the election results, he pointed out the truth of this statement, pointing out that the Islamic group to which he belongs is considered to have tampered with the vote counting process in many areas. Have to face, whether it is for the federal parliament or the regional parliaments. ,

He pointed to several cases in which, according to oversight committees, Thursday night (election day) counts indicated a candidate's victory, but everyone was surprised by the announcement of the opponent's victory in the morning.

Regarding the scenarios to form the next government after the announcement of most of the voting results on Sunday, Lukman told Al Jazeera Net that the first and most likely scenario is a coalition between the Islamic League and the People's Party to form the government and bringing together smaller parties. Perhaps the most prominent among them is the United National Movement, which won 17 seats in the federal parliament, until they were completed. Parliamentary majority qualifies him to form the government.

The other expected scenario, but to a lesser extent, is that Imran Khan's supporters, who are estimated to number more than 100 in Parliament, will form a new party and form an alliance with other forces with the aim of forming a government. In this case, he would need the support of 68 other members of Parliament.

He said that PTI has announced that it will not opt ​​for alliance with Muslim League or People's Party.

He pointed out that in any case, the government formed would be weak and would not be expected to achieve much for Pakistan, which is suffering from a serious economic crisis, especially apart from securing the repayment of the debt to the International Monetary Fund. . Crisis due to spread of violence in some areas.

At the end of his speech, Lukman said that if such a government is formed, it will not be more than two years old.

Shakeel Ahmed Rami / Political Economist, Executive Director of the Asian Environmental Civilization Research and Development Institute / Islamabad Photography: Shahar Al-Ahmad
Ramay said that despite its widespread popularity, Insaf Party will not be able to form the next government (Al Jazeera)

Army will not allow Imran

Analyst Shakeel Ahmed Ramai did not deviate from what Luqman said, as he suggested that the People's Party and the Muslim League would resort to forming a coalition government, and the PTI party, which is widely popular, would, as he says, do so. Will not be able to. Form the next government.

Ramai – executive director of the Asian Environmental Civilization Research and Development Institute – warned that good governance and a fair economic system are basic conditions for building a stable, secure and prosperous society. This has been achieved through an open political process and a credible system.

For her part, Farzana Shaikh, an expert on Pakistani politics and economics, told Al Jazeera, “Imran Khan and army commander Asim Munir are in a state of clear disagreement and do not accept each other,” denying that Khan's supporters will be allowed to form the next government.

Meanwhile, Farzana said that there are loopholes in several cases against Khan and he will be referred to higher courts where he can be investigated more, which is likely to lead to his release from jail.

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