Experts and analysts say growing Israeli discussions about bringing military operations to the city of Rafah, south of the Gaza Strip, could mean a catastrophe for displaced people in the area, with the Egyptian situation in particular and the Arab situation in general Emphasis has been given. , seem weak regarding this crisis.
Major General Fayez al-Duwairi said that there is increasing talk about the existence of Israeli-Egyptian coordination regarding the Rafah and Philadelphia axis, while Egypt has no clear position on these negotiations.
The program “Gaza… What Next?” Al-Duwairi said that the arrival of war in Rafah means a real disaster, “because more than a million displaced people will have no place to go, especially since Egypt is giving Gazans access to their land. “Confirms the refusal to relocate from.”
Al-Duwairi spoke about the difficulty of resolving the Battle of Khan Yunis unless displaced people return to it, pointing out that Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant is expected to resolve matters in the city within a week. The talk of solving the problem contradicts the ground reality.
He said Khan Yunis includes the strongest brigades of the al-Qassam Brigades, the military wing of the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas), and the most militant brigades of other factions, allowing Israel to extend its control over it within a week. Gallant says.
false victory marketing
The same opinion was shared by Israeli affairs expert Ihab Jabarin, who said that Gallant's talk about the imminent resolution of the Battle of Khan Yunis falls within the framework of efforts to market inside Israel an unrealistic victory that must be awaited. Used to be. Every morning for 4 months to win this.
In this context, Dalia Fahmy, a professor of political science at Long Island University, said that turning the conversation toward Rafah reflects the Israeli government's sense that al-Shira is not satisfied with it, nor with the results of the military operation.
But this change in Rafah – in Dalia's opinion – means that strategic opportunities for the Israeli government are diminishing, and it raises questions about what kind of victory Israel wants, and where the displaced might go.
From Ihab Jabarin's perspective, this uncertainty reflects a lack of a plan by Israel, and he affirms that the war council continues to seek a victory that would save Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his army commanders.
In addition, Israel is also trying to achieve all the achievements that it failed to achieve while still occupying the Gaza Strip, especially regarding the tunnels, says Ihab, who believes That Israel plans to capture Rafah and Philadelphia and annex them. The safe zone he wants to create.
An ambiguous situation in Egypt
However, according to Dalia, Israel's entry into Rafah is largely dependent on Egypt's position, “a situation that seems very complicated because Cairo is not settling this fight cleanly,” as he said.
He added, “Egypt received a guarantee from US President Joe Biden that it would not participate in population displacement, and at the same time received a bribe to allow aid ($7,000 per truck) to cross, even if the entry Does not represent 10% of his needs, and also gets – 7.5 thousand dollars from each person who wishes to leave the Gaza Strip.
Dalia believes that Egypt's relations with Israel and the US are ambiguous, and that the Egyptian leadership should convey popular rejection of disengagement to other parties.
As for al-Duwairi, he said that the Egyptian and Arab position in general is “a weak position unless it is a conspiracy,” adding, “If there was a clear Arab position, what is happening is does not happen.”
Al-Duwairi pointed out that Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi's talk about the presence of barriers on the Palestinian, not the Egyptian, side of the Rafah land crossing “contradicts the idea of Egyptian sovereignty,” he said.
“In 2012 (during the rule of late President Mohammed Morsi) the crossing was opened in front of Israel, and members of the Egyptian government entered the center of Gaza during the war,” al-Duwairi said.
In turn, Ihab concluded that Israel was trying to destroy all civilian infrastructure in the Gaza Strip; Because he realizes that this is the only victory that can be achieved in this fight.