Following the events of October 7, during which Hamas dealt a major blow to Israeli security, military, and settlements, Israel responded with a devastating war on the Gaza Strip, causing heavy damage to all areas of the city.without exception. After so many losses from that war, the question arises: Is the October 7 operation worth all the losses that the Palestinians paid in Gaza? To answer this question we need to study the war and its consequences from multiple angles.
loss of war parties
More than 25,000 have been martyred in this war so far, two-thirds of whom are children and women, and more than 63,000 are wounded and injured. More than 347 Palestinians have also been martyred, with more than 4,000 injured in the West Bank, which Israeli reports indicate is a candidate for an imminent eruption. Israeli occupation forces estimate and claim that they killed more than 8,000 Palestinian fighters associated with Palestinian resistance movements in Gaza.
Israel caused widespread destruction of Gaza City's infrastructure; It destroyed more than 50% of housing units, disabled all infrastructure and put it out of service, and displaced 85% of Gaza's population from their homes due to damage caused by the bombing. Were. Israel has so far dropped 10,000 bombs and missiles on Gaza.
Reports have estimated that the explosives dropped on Gaza up to November 2 last year had the same explosive power as the atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in World War II.
The Euro-Mediterranean Human Rights Observatory pointed to the complete lack of sources of potable water. Cut off water supplies to Gaza and disruption of fuel needed for water transfer and distribution stations led to the spread of infectious and contagious diseases.
A UN committee of experts reported that more than 90% of the population of the Gaza Strip has become seriously food insecure, and a quarter of the population suffers from catastrophic levels of hunger.
School education was also disrupted; 69% of educational facilities were destroyed, many health facilities stopped providing health services, and 373 of their staff were martyred, further exacerbating the crisis the region was suffering from before the war. All previous numbers are likely to increase significantly in view of the ongoing war and Israeli aggression against Gaza.
On the other hand, the size of Israeli losses as a result of the war on Gaza was not small, and according to Israel's admission, soldiers killed since October 7 (including soldiers killed and soldiers killed on October 7) in the ground war, and killed on the border with Lebanon, and killed in accidents and friendly fire) were 561 soldiers, and 2,496 Israeli soldiers were wounded, and this number is likely to increase in view of the huge losses Israeli forces in Gaza suffer every day. falls, the latest of which is the Al-Maghazi incident.
On October 7, 790 Israeli civilians were killed, the number of wounded and injured civilians exceeded 10,000, and approximately a quarter of a million Israelis were displaced from settlements on the northern and southern borders.
Resistance movements in Gaza are still holding 132 Israeli prisoners since October 7, after they exchanged many of them with Palestinian female prisoners in a temporary ceasefire signed last November.
Resistance movements from Gaza launched 14,000 rockets attacking Israeli territories, including Tel Aviv and the city of Jerusalem, and they are still able to launch rockets from the Strip, and all of these numbers are subject to periodic increases.
Profits and losses in the balance of resistance movement wars
It is true that the size of the difference between the losses suffered by the Palestinian resistance and its popular incubator and the relative losses incurred by the Israeli occupation state is large, but the balance of gains and losses in wars led by resistance movements rests entirely with the states. And distinct from wars waged by regular armies against each other. History says: the losses of physical resistance are always many times greater than the losses of the occupying state, but no matter how great the losses of the resistance forces and their popular incubator are compared to the losses caused by their continued occupation. Is less harmful.
Also, the occupied countries cannot afford the cost of war even if their losses are small, and the proof of this is the history of liberation movements in the world.
The secondary results achieved by the Palestinian resistance in favor of the Palestinian interest in this war can be summarized in several respects:
At the military level, the Resistance was able to dispel the idea of an invincible army. The events of 7 October revealed the extent of the illusion and artificial aura around the occupied state, and a group of fighters who possessed sheer willpower and the element of surprise were able to achieve on the ground what the occupied state had set out to achieve. Hadn't done it since then. The date of its establishment, and to break the Arab psychological barrier. They invalidate the adage of the invincible army.
Just as Jordan's War of Dignity in 1968, Egypt's October 6 War in 1973, and the Lebanese Resistance in 2000 forced Israel to withdraw from southern Lebanon, Israel's dream of geographical expansion outside the Palestinian territories ended Were capable, Israel's defeat in Gaza – if that happens – means the end of Israel's dream of geographical expansion into the Palestinian hinterland at the expense of the Palestinian people and their lands, the beginning of the erosion of the Israeli project and the beginning of the countdown to its end. Emergency project on the ground.
At the political level, the resistance was able to restore the presence of the Palestinian issue, and bring it back to international forums after being covered with the dust of almost oblivion. The events of October 7 brought to light the appearance of support among American and European politicians for the idea of a two-state solution, a solution that the right wing rejects. He maintains control over the Israeli government, wants all Palestinian land it captured in 1967, and wants to get rid of the entire Palestinian population outside Palestine.
The operation was able to temporarily stop the wheels of Arab-Israeli normalization, the fate of which will also depend on the outcomes of the war on Gaza.
The October 7 operation managed to confuse the ruling Israeli right, which managed the fighting in such a way that it created internal divisions among them, the mini-war also led to divisions within the government, and such actions emboldened Israel to its closest Relations with supporters suffered huge losses.
The latest opinion polls show that the war has weakened the Israeli right, and that if early elections were held the right-wing parties that form the current government in opposition would suffer major losses.
The Palestinian narrative, through the Israeli response, was able to reveal the extent of the brutality suffered by the occupying state. The operation was able to inflame the uncontrolled Israeli right, and brought out the worst of the Israeli mentality in the media, so it would reveal to the world and the public of countries that support Israel the extent to which this state enjoys barbarism. have taken.
This was reflected in American opinion polls, in which American youth aged 18 to 24 viewed that the solution to the Palestinian issue and ending the Israeli–Palestinian conflict would – from their perspective – be by abolishing the State of Israel and handing it over to the Palestinians. , as alternative media and social networking sites helped show scenes of Israeli brutality on the ground. Its truth without guidance and embellishment.
At the same time, the war scenes were able to drag Israel to the International Court of Justice for crimes of genocide, and that moment may have been the decisive moment in which Israel's image changed from playing the role of victim to the one it lived during. In the last decades, it has played the role of executioner for crimes against humanity.
When is resistance victorious or defeated?
Despite all the political and military gains achieved by the resistance, regardless of their importance, they will remain marginal and secondary gains in this war, and the direct, dominant, and main criteria of victory and defeat will remain controlled by the outcome of the final war. The land, which will reflect on the Palestinian issue and mark a major turning point in the history of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, far from being the criterion of the number of martyrs, material losses in buildings and infrastructure; All of this can be compensated for, and nations are not destroyed but recover quickly.
We can say that resistance wins or loses if either side of the conflict wins or loses in the following elements:
1- If Israel withdraws from the areas in Gaza into which it entered at the end of the war; This withdrawal means that Israel is no longer able to impose what it wants on the ground, and the resistance, despite its heavy losses, was able to create a new situation in the Israeli conflict, and end the period in which Israel He achieves everything he wants.
While the Palestinian resistance will and will be defeated if Israel is able to recapture the Gaza Strip, control it, quietly subordinate it to Israeli authorities, and return Gaza to pre-2005 conditions, the October 7 The events will be a setback in the Palestinian struggle movement.
2- The resistance will triumph when its body and organizational structure remain effective and capable of rebuilding and renewing itself, and a part of its leadership remains in the public arena and media landscape, and most importantly, it continues its existence. Maintain it. Weapons and is able to rebuild its military system.
Whereas the defeat of the resistance would come in dismantling and disarming it, dismantling the military system and organizational structures of the Palestinian resistance movements, arresting and prosecuting their leaders, or accepting their displacement from Gaza.
3- The success of the resistance in conducting the prisoner exchange agreement would be a major political victory that would enable it to free many influential and effective leaders in the struggle of the Palestinian people, leaders whose liberation would mean a great encouragement and giving important struggle experience. Is. All Palestinian factions. Which will be reflected in all Palestinian struggles and liberation movements.
However, if Israel can free its prisoners by force without a prisoner exchange agreement with the resistance, it would be a major political victory for Israel, even if some of them are killed.
Without any doubt, this war is a zero-sum war. Either the resistance wins and Israel and its project retreat, or the resistance – God forbid – is crushed and Israel advances.
There is no need for any compromise solution, approach, half-solution or transfer of the crisis to the future in this war. It is either complete victory by defeating the occupation, or complete defeat, and the military reality in the field determines all the conditions for subsequent victory and defeat.