Experts unanimously agreed that the expected prisoner exchange deal between the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) and Israel has reached the advanced stage, and will not involve a final ceasefire but a longer truce. He also ruled out military action by Israeli occupation forces along Philadelphia's axis separating Egypt and the Gaza Strip.
Israeli affairs expert Dr. Muhannad Mustafa said that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will accept the agreement he is talking about and will take political risks to save his government, as the challenge still remains after the approval of the Council of Ministers . War council approval.
Mustafa asked “Gaza… what next?” Said in his speech at the event – that Netanyahu would accept the agreement to restore prisoners in Gaza, but while reassuring the extreme right that he is continuing the war and will not stop it, he will also be tough on the issue of the release of Palestinian prisoners. Will stay.
He pointed out that the deep state in Israel and a large faction in the government want a ceasefire, not a full ceasefire, indicating that the existence of a prolonged ceasefire would lead to extreme right-wing protests against Netanyahu and his overthrow. Is. Government and early elections.
He continued by explaining that if Netanyahu opposed the agreement, War Council member Benny Gantz would leave, which would increase the amount of opposition and division in Israeli society over the goals of the war.
In this issue – Mustafa says – the extreme right considers the ceasefire a defeat because it knows that international movements will stop the war and it will be deprived of its dream of resettling in Gaza, while there is also a section that believes the same is a success, because it will achieve the most important demand of restitution of prisoners, and move toward a political path that achieves Israeli goals.
“Ensuring Israel's security”
In turn, Dr. Laika Makki, senior researcher at the Al Jazeera Center for Studies, confirmed that everything that is happening is in the context of negotiations to ensure Israel's security, emphasizing that Washington remains engaged in Gaza. Hamas does not want any military presence and has done so. There is no objection to it remaining political.
He explained that the agreement would not include the words “ceasefire” and “disarmament of Hamas”, but would include mechanisms that would achieve both objectives, a longer ceasefire that could reach up to 6 months, meaning Israel would Losing its momentum. fighting, except for the return of the Palestinian Authority to Gaza or the occupation of a transitional government. The issue of security, and the internal arms control it implies.
Makki asked, “Will Hamas agree to this deal, which includes the US willingness to gradually destroy it, or will it refuse and continue fighting?” There is a regional desire to end it.
He said that the deal has reached an advanced stage and requires a clear political decision, which explains – in his opinion – the arrival of US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken to the region to resolve its final details.
The point is to recover the largest number of Israeli prisoners, “which means a large number of prisoners will remain, which means the power cards will remain in Hamas' hands,” he said.
For his part, Major General Faiz al-Duwairi, a military and strategic expert, believes that the negotiation process is going through a difficult process, and all factors will be analyzed, depending on the terms of the expected agreement.
He reported that Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid gave Netanyahu a lifeline instead of threatening the finance and national security ministers, Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir, stressing that the move would partially free them.
Al-Duwairi confirmed that the return of Hamas civilian administration to the northern Gaza Strip irked Israel, at a time when the occupation forces were exhausted, and cited frequent announcements of withdrawing combat brigades from Gaza as evidence. Gave.
While al-Duwairi confirmed that military action in the Philadelphia Axis was “out of the question”, Mustafa believed that the understanding – which had been talked about in Israel – was expected, as Israeli forces were in conflict with Egypt. Security was in favor of moving forward in the direction of understanding. , and is not controlling the axis.
He explained that this understanding provides Israel with security, saves it the trouble of carrying out a military operation with serious consequences, and avoids military and international consequences.
Al-Duwairi stressed that the Israeli military was convinced that it would not achieve the war's goals, and that Netanyahu was motivated by personal interests, “so he started pressuring the political decision-makers to discuss the war the day after.” Gave.” ,
In turn, the Makki meeting believes that it is necessary to appease Israel in order to agree to a ceasefire, including the installation of electronic devices and sensors to detect tunnels and the construction of an underground wall with the aim of increasing the siege. stated in. Stopping Gaza and its lifeline.